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Alpha Architect announced Larry Swedroe's insights on the impact of spreading volatility in private investments. The research shows that private equity's infrequent valuations can smooth returns, leading to underestimated risks and over-allocation.
Swedroe’s research on private investment volatility examines how infrequent valuations in private equity can lead to smoother returns, giving the impression of lower volatility. According to Nicolas Rabener’s 2020 study, the volatility of private equity returns is undersaid due to smoothing, making them appear less volatile than they are. This leads to an inaccurate perception of risk, as private equity returns can be replicated through public equities with similar volatility. Advisors should adjust their volatility assumptions for private equity to reflect higher risk, about 20% greater than public equities, according to Alpha Architect.
Mark Anson’s 2024 study expanded on Rabener’s findings by including various types of private investments and examining the impact of lagged betas. Anson’s research revealed that private valuation methods lead to a smoothing effect, underestimating systematic risk and inflating alpha estimates. This results in higher reported alphas and lower volatility than is accurate, affecting investment decisions and portfolio allocations, according to Alpha Architect.
