Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, said that cryptocurrency gains depend on liquidity, with a government shutdown and the Treasury General Account (TGA) delaying conditions for a breakout. The statement was made on X.
“I usually like to give you a small fragment of Global Macro Investor when I sit down to write it as I did this weekend,” said Pal. “Crypto is driven by liquidity as you know. For TOTAL2ES to break higher, you need liquidity to make new highs…the Gov shutdown and TGA delayed it …”
Analysts increasingly associate cryptocurrency performance with global liquidity and the U.S. TGA. Liquidity expansions often drive risk-asset rallies. According to Reuters, the Federal Reserve’s plan to end balance-sheet reduction around $6.6 trillion in late 2025 reflects tightening liquidity concerns. CoinDesk reported a $29.4 billion Federal Reserve liquidity injection that boosted Bitcoin and altcoins such as TOTAL2, illustrating how central-bank and Treasury flows directly influence crypto market momentum.
According to CoinGecko and TradingView data, TOTAL2 (the crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin) hovered near $950 billion in October 2025, marking an increase of approximately 45% from its 2023 low. CrossBorder Capital’s Global Liquidity Watch indicates that global liquidity rose by 6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, coinciding with a broad crypto rebound. This parallel rise supports the hypothesis that expanding liquidity sustains altcoin valuations relative to tighter periods.
Recent weekly data from FiscalData and FRED show the U.S. TGA at about $985 billion on October 28, 2025, and the Fed’s total assets near $6.6 trillion. CoinDesk reported that a $29.4 billion Fed liquidity injection preceded a short-term crypto rally. European Central Bank (ECB) balance-sheet data showed similar liquidity upticks, reinforcing the correlation between central-bank liquidity and crypto market surges in 2025.
Raoul Pal is the co-founder and CEO of Real Vision and publisher of Global Macro Investor (GMI). According to Real Vision’s official bio, he previously led European hedge-fund equity derivative sales at Goldman Sachs and later managed the GLG Global Macro Fund before founding GMI in 2005 and Real Vision in 2014. Pal is recognized as a prominent commentator on liquidity cycles and digital assets.
Real Vision was founded in 2014 by Raoul Pal and Grant Williams as a subscription-based financial-media and education platform producing interviews, research, and courses for global investors. As reported by PitchBook and the company website, its mission is to democratize financial knowledge and connect investors through premium content and its RV Pro membership.
